A successful real-time forecast of the 2010-11 La Nina event

作者：Zhang, Rong-Hua^*; Zheng, Fei; Zhu, Jiang; Wang, Zhanggui

来源：Scientific Reports, 2013, 3(1): 1108.

DOI：10.1038/srep01108

• TROPICAL PACIFIC-OCEAN
• COUPLED MODEL
• ENTRAINMENT TEMPERATURE
• EL
• ENSO
• PREDICTION
• PREDICTABILITY
• CLIMATE

During 2010-11, a La Nina condition prevailed in the tropical Pacific. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used to demonstrate a real-time forecast of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution during the event. One of the ICM's unique features is an empirical parameterization of the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (T-e). This model provided a good prediction, particularly of the "double dip" evolution of SST in 2011 that followed the La Nina event peak in October 2010. Thermocline feedback, explicitly represented by the relationship between Te and sea level in the ICM, is a crucial factor affecting the second cooling in 2011. Large negative Te anomalies were observed to persist in the central equatorial domain during 2010-11, inducing a cold SST anomaly to the east during July-August 2011 and leading to the development of a La Nina condition thereafter.

• 出版日期2013-1-23
• 单位国家海洋环境预报中心; 中国科学院大气物理研究所; 北京师范大学