Association between Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Epidemic and Climate Factors in Heilongjiang Province, China

作者：Li, Chang-Ping; Cui, Zhuang; Li, Shen-Long; Magalhaes, Ricardo J. Soares; Wang, Bao-Long; Zhang, Cui; Sun, Hai-Long; Li, Cheng-Yi; Huang, Liu-Yu; Ma, Jun; Zhang, Wen-Yi^*

来源：The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 2013, 89(5): 1006-1012.

DOI：10.4269/ajtmh.12-0473

• HANTAVIRUS PULMONARY SYNDROME
• TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS
• ROSS RIVER VIRUS
• 4 CORNERS REGION
• EL-NINO
• PUUMALA VIRUS
• RISK-FACTORS
• DEER MICE
• INFECTION
• VARIABILITY

The purpose of this study was to quantify the relationship between climate variation and transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Heilongjiang Province, a highly endemic area for HFRS in China. Monthly notified HFRS cases and climatic data for 2001-2009 in Heilongjiang Province were collected. Using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, we found that relative humidity with a one-month lag (beta = -0.010, P = 0.003) and a three-month lag (beta = 0.008, P = 0.003), maximum temperature with a two-month lag (beta = 0.082, P = 0.028), and southern oscillation index with a two-month lag (beta = -0.048, P = 0.019) were significantly associated with HFRS transmission. Our study also showed that predicted values expected under the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model were highly consistent with observed values (Adjusted R-2 = 83%, root mean squared error = 108). Thus, findings may help add to the knowledge gap of the role of climate factors in HFRS transmission in China and also assist national local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better strategy to prevent HFRS transmission.

• 出版日期2013-11
• 单位天津医科大学; 南开大学