A predictive model for relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit

作者：Lyatsky Wladislaw^*; Khazanov George V

来源：Geophysical Research Letters, 2008, 35(15): L15108.

DOI：10.1029/2008GL034688

We developed a predictive model for forecasting relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit that provides very high correlation between the predicted and actual electron fluxes. We integrated numerically the two linked continuity equations for preliminary accelerated electrons and relativistic electrons. The model includes sources and losses, and it uses solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the solar wind coupling function as the source, while the loss term we assumed to be proportional to the solar wind density which plays an important role in the decay of relativistic electrons. Relativistic electron fluxes, predicted from this model, show very high correlation with the actual electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. We tested the model for four-year period (2004-2007). The correlation coefficients between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for one day ahead for each year are about 0.93.

• 出版日期2008-8-14