摘要

The reliability of power transformers is subject to service age and health condition. This paper proposes a practical model for the evaluation of two reliability indices: survival SF) and mean residual life (MRL). In the proposed model, the periodical modeling of power transformers are considered for collecting the information on health conditions. The corresponding health condition is assumed to follow a continuous semi-Markov process for representing a state transition. The proportional hazard model (PHM) is introduced to incorporate service age and health condition into hazard rate. In addition, the proposed model derives the analytical formulas for and offers the analytical evaluation of SF and MRL. SF and MRL are calculated for new components and old components, respectively. In both cases, the proposed model offers rational results which are compared with those obtained from comparative models. The results obtained by the contrast of the proposed analytical method and the Monte Carlo method. The impact of different model parameters and the coefficient of variation (CV) on reliability indices are discussed in the case studies.