An inexact log-normal distribution-based stochastic chance-constrained model for agricultural water quality management

作者：Wang, Yu; Fan, Jie; Xu, Ye^*; Sun, Wei; Chen, Dong

来源：Engineering Optimization, 2018, 50(5): 840-855.

DOI：10.1080/0305215X.2017.1357715

• Stochastic chance-constrained programming
• log-normal distribution
• agriculture
• Erhai Lake
• uncertainty

In this study, an inexact log-normal-based stochastic chance-constrained programming model was developed for solving the non-point source pollution issues caused by agricultural activities. Compared to the general stochastic chance-constrained programming model, the main advantage of the proposed model is that it allows random variables to be expressed as a log-normal distribution, rather than a general normal distribution. Possible deviations in solutions caused by irrational parameter assumptions were avoided. The agricultural system management in the Erhai Lake watershed was used as a case study, where critical system factors, including rainfall and runoff amounts, show characteristics of a log-normal distribution. Several interval solutions were obtained under different constraint-satisfaction levels, which were useful in evaluating the trade-off between system economy and reliability. The applied results show that the proposed model could help decision makers to design optimal production patterns under complex uncertainties. The successful application of this model is expected to provide a good example for agricultural management in many other watersheds.

• 出版日期2018
• 单位中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所; 华北电力大学; 东北师范大学; 华北电力大学（保定）