A Simple Test of Momentum in Foreign Exchange Markets

作者:Eduardo Gomez Gonzalez Jose; Garcia Suaza Andres F
来源:Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 2012, 48(5): 66-77.
DOI:10.2753/REE1540-496X480504

摘要

This study proposes a new method for testing for the presence of momentum in nominal exchange rates, using a probabilistic approach. Using data for eight emerging economies, we show evidence of exchange rate inertia; however, the presence of momentum is asymmetric, being stronger in moments of currency depreciation than in moments of appreciation. This behavior may be associated with central bank intervention.

  • 出版日期2012-10

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