Decision analysis in forensic science

作者：Taroni F^*; Bozza S; Aitken C

来源：Journal of Forensic Sciences, 2005, 50(4): 894-905.

• forensic science
• decision analysis
• Bayes theorem
• scientific evidence
• evaluation
• interpretation
• kinship determination
• utility

Forensic scientists are routinely faced with the problems of making decisions under circumstances of uncertainty (i.e, to perform or not perform a test). A decision making model in forensic science is proposed. illustrated with in example from the field of forensic genetics. The approach incorporates available evidence and associated uncertainties with the assessment of utilities (or desirability of file consequences). The paper examines a general example for which identification will be made of the decision maker, the possible actions, the uncertain states of nature, the possible source of evidence and the kind of utility assessments required. It is argued that a forma approach can help to clarify the decision process and give a coherent means of combining elements to reach a decision.

• 出版日期2005-7
• 单位河北医科大学