Applying structured scenario fusion to address multifaceted strategic challenges

作者：Barker Alec D^*

来源：Journal of the Operational Research Society, 2014, 65(11): 1726-1734.

DOI：10.1057/jors.2013.129

• strategic planning
• defence studies
• practice of OR
• scenario development
• structured scenario fusion
• counterfactual reasoning

This paper proposes an applied method by which to fuse multiple independently developed scenarios to serve as a basis for strategic studies in the national security operations research community. First, it describes the need to fuse scenarios methodically as a consequence of the evolution of global security conditions and as a matter of logic that might be otherwise overlooked. Second, it proposes applying Structured Scenario Fusion (SSF), a method that uses three stylized tables to systematically and transparently record the process of scenario fusion. Third, it provides an example application set in a hypothetical study of future security conditions in Somalia. It concludes that SSF offers a promising way to improve the pedigree, realism, and logic of assumptions underpinning scenario-based strategic studies, as well as the quality of strategic decisions and plans thereby justified.

• 出版日期2014-11