科研之友
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摘要
The Prometheus Fire Growth Model is a deterministic wildfire simulator. Given weather, topographical and fuel information, the simulated fire front is plotted at equally spaced times. Unpredictability of fire behavior makes deterministic predictions inaccurate. By statistically modeling the data to which the model equations are fit, it is possible to obtain a distribution of fire front predictions. If the weather forecast is reliable, repeated stochastic simulation is not required, so probability contours require no more computing time than what is required for a single deterministic contour.
- 出版日期2014-9
