科研之友
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摘要
Application of BW monitoring methods for the whole batch of pigs is not common in commercial herds. Instead, farm managers may regularly weigh a chosen subset of pigs (observed group) and use the obtained information for monitoring, forecasting, and decision support. The objective of this study was to construct a model for growth monitoring and forecasting in pig fattening herds and use the developed model framework to quantify the value of information on BW. The dynamic process of pig growing was described by means of a dynamic linear model (DLM) with Kalman filtering. For this study, data from 9 fattening cycles with the total registration for 9,800 pigs were used. The variance components were estimated by fitting a mixed-effects linear model on selected BW measurements. The obtained model was evaluated on its performance in forecasting the number of pigs ready to deliver from the whole batch and from a particular pen given the level of information on a reference data set consisting of 2 batches (Batch 3 [B1] and Batch 4 [B2]). Scenarios with a different frequency of observations (only 1 selected week, every second week, or weekly) on individual and aggregated levels for an observed group comprising 1 pen (36 pigs, which constitute 7.5% of pigs in a batch) or 2 pens (15.5% of pigs) were analyzed. Moreover, results with only initial herd information and insertion BW at the batch, pen, and pig level were presented. The model can be used for growth monitoring of the batch and for prediction of the number of pigs ready for slaughter in a given week (i.e., with a BW exceeding a threshold, which, in this study, is set to 105 kg). With an increased level of information, both accuracy (measured by the mean absolute deviation [MAD] of actual number of pigs above 105 kg from predicted number) and precision (measured by CV) of the model continue to improve. When monitoring all pigs at insertion and the observed groups every week (15.5% of pigs) compared with predictions based on only initial herd information, the MAD between the observed and predicted number of pigs above 105 kg in a single pen decreased by 1.4 and 2 pigs whereas CV was reduced by 147 and 78% for B1 and B2, respectively. The DLM was able to detect variation between pens already at insertion; therefore, data on initial BW had high value for the prediction procedure. Moreover, the aggregation had a marginal effect on model performance.
- 出版日期2016-3
