Analyzing uncertainty of distributed snowmelt runoff model parameter using the GLUE method

作者：Wang Yuejian; Meng Xianyong; Ji Xiaonan

来源：International Journal of Applied Environmental Sciences, 2013, 8(7): 833-839.

• Environment protection
• Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation
• Likelihood estimation
• Monte Carlo sampling
• Parameter calibration
• Parameter uncertainty
• Sensitivity of parameters
• Snowmelt runoff model

In order to predict snowmelt flood disasters in Xinjiang, the uncertainty of parameters in the distributed snowmelt runoff model was analyzed by using the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) method, and the forecast error was similarly analyzed. The results show that there are large amounts of parameter to a group with a characteristic of different parameters with the same effect in model parameters, i.e. Many acceptable likelihood estimation parameter combinations were existing. So, parameters of distributed snowmelt runoff model can be classified into four typical snowmelt runoff forecasting model parameters involved in Ta, Rs, Vw, and RH. Using Monte Carlo sampling methods, selected 10000 set of parameters carried out the model parameters and uncertainty analysis of measured flow. The study of the parameters of the distributed snowmelt runoff model and the sensitivity of parameters will provide supports to parameter calibration and the application of distributed snowmelt runoff model and also can provide decision-making reference for environment protection.

• 出版日期2013