科研之友
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摘要
Taking Jiangxi of China as an example, we, firstly, accounted the energy consumption (EC) and carbon emission (CO2, CE) of this province's tourism transport in recently 13 years. Then, we used the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method to analysis the drivers of the CE. Results show that: (1)Respectively, the EC and CE of tourism transport in Jiangxi in 1999 were 4.2 PJ and 0.46 Mt. They grew up to 31.9 PJ and 3.59 Mt in 2011. The increasing amounts were 27.7 PJ and 3.13 Mt, with an average annual growth rate of 18.4% and 18.6%. These meant that with the improvement of living standards, more and more people engaged in the activities of tourism industry. (2) The consumption demand of people's tourism had been greatly released in 2004 and 2011, which could arise from the influences of the "SARS" in 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2008, respectively. (3) The importance of the latent drivers can be sorted as the following order: A(2) (square of GDP per capita), A (GDP per capita), T (carbon intensity), T-1 (EC intensity) and P (population). The impact on the CE from T-2 (the factor denoted by T/T-1) is negligible. The impact of U (urbanization rate) is little. The A(2), A, T, T-1 and P have an increase of 1%. The corresponding CE will have an increase of 0.275%, 0.259%, 0.148%, 0.145% and 0.131%, respectively. In the end, some suggestions are proposed for local development: to speed up the pattern's upgrade of the development, to promote the implementation of energy saving, to improve the technical level and energy efficiency so as to reduce the regional energy intensity, to go on controlling population growth and to boost the new-type urbanization, to some extent.
- 出版日期2014
- 单位江西师范大学
