Demographic collapse

作者：Bainbridge William Sims^*

来源：Futures, 2009, 41(10): 738-745.

DOI：10.1016/j.futures.2009.07.005

If nothing else kills it first, the human species could become extinct in a thousand years, simply for failure to reproduce at a sufficient rate to offset the natural deaths of individuals. Already, the death rate exceeds the birth rate in many nations of the European Union. All EU nations have fertility rates too low to sustain the population forever, and cultural globalization could spread this infertility to all humanity. Classical demographic transition theory assumed that modern societies would have birth rates just high enough to balance low death rates. However, their rates are too low, with the notable exception of the United States where high fertility among immigrants and unwed mothers contributes significantly. After documenting the situation, this article considers social responses to this problem, both moderate and radical, finding them less than satisfactory. Perhaps the only way the human species can survive is to transcend the current human condition by evolving into something that is no longer human.

• 出版日期2009-12
• 单位国家自然科学基金委员会