Analytical method to identify the number of containers to inspect at US ports to deter terrorist attacks

作者：Bier Vicki M; Haphuriwat Naraphorn^*

来源：Annals of Operations Research, 2011, 187(1): 137-158.

DOI：10.1007/s10479-009-0665-6

• Port security
• Cargo screening
• Game theory
• Deterrence
• Decision analysis
• Smuggling of weapons

In this paper, we investigate how many containers would need to be screened in order to deter attackers from attempting to smuggle weapons into a defending country in container freight. We hypothesize that with a sufficiently high probability of being detected, attackers might be deterred from smuggling attempts. Thus, our goal is to identify the optimal proportion of containers to inspect in order to minimize the defender's expected loss, using game theory to reflect the fact that attackers are simultaneously trying to maximize their expected rewards. Moreover, our model recognizes that the container-screening policy must simultaneously protect against different types of threats (such as nuclear bombs, dirty bombs, and assault rifles). Finally, our model also suggests that threatening to retaliate against attacks may be beneficial to defenders, as long as the threat is credible.

• 出版日期2011-7