摘要

The scientists evaluate the climate change by various methods. The long-term phonological observation is a quite significant indicator of this phenomenon. Moreover, the forecasting of plants flowering period or changing of amount of pollen production is important for guarantying of social health. The aim of the research - to analyze the inter-dependence of flowering changes and pollen concentration under the climate change according to the long-term phenological data and evaluation of aeropalynological situation in Lithuania. For this purpose one based upon the data of birch flowering (1970-1999) and birch flowering and pollen concentration in air (2004-2008). The interpretation of data with statistic methods showed that the start of birch flowering varies in different years (8-32 days) and the regional differences increase (approximately 3 days during 30 years). One phenological station does not reflect the real aerobiological situation in the observation site. Tight analysis of pollen and phenological data basing upon the flowering data allows gathering knowledge about possible change of the pollen seasons in future.

  • 出版日期2010