An economic agent-based model of coupled housing and land markets (CHALMS)

作者：Magliocca Nicholas^*; Safirova Elena; McConnell Virginia; Walls Margaret

来源：Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 2011, 35(3): 183-191.

DOI：10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2011.01.002

• Agent-based modeling
• Land markets
• Housing markets
• Price expectations
• Coupled markets
• Housing density

This paper describes a spatially disaggregated, economic agent-based model of urban land use, which is named for its innovative feature of coupled housing and land markets (CHALMS). The three types of agents consumer, farmer and developer all make decisions based on underlying economic principles, and heterogeneity of both individuals and the landscape is represented. CHALMS simulates the conversion of farmland to housing development over time, through the actions of the agents in the land and housing markets. Land and building structures in the housing bundle are treated explicitly, so the model can represent the effects of land and housing prices on housing density over time. We use CHALMS to simulate the dynamics of land-use changes as a representative suburban area grows. The presence of agent and landscape heterogeneity, stochastic processes, and path dependence require multiple model runs, and the expression of spatial dispersion of housing types, overall housing density, and land prices over time in terms of the most likely, or 'average', patterns. We find that CHALMS captures both the general tendency for diminishing population density at greater distances from the center city, and dispersed leapfrog patterns of development evident in most suburban areas of the US.

• 出版日期2011-5