LOOKING FORWARD IN RECORDS OF YOUNG ADULTS CONVICTED OF SEXUAL HOMICIDE, RAPE, OR MOLESTATION AS YOUTH: RISKS FOR REOFFENDING

作者：Busch Kenneth G; Zagar Robert John^*; Grove William M; Hughes John Russell; Arbit Jack; Bussell Robert E; Bartikowski Boris

来源：Psychological Reports, 2009, 104(1): 155-184.

DOI：10.2466/PR0.104.1.155-184

To assess the risks predicting reoffense, 223 Rapists (M age= 14.2 yr., SD=1.5; 25 girls, 198 boys) were matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; risks were analyzed using logistic regression. The one predictor was prior court contacts (OR=155e+12; AUC=.99, 95%CI=38-99). 223 Molesters were similarly matched with 223 Nonviolent Delinquents; this comparison yielded three predictors: previous court contacts (OR=4.55e+23), poorer executive OR=2.01), and lower social maturity (OR=.97; AUC=.98, 95%CI=.97-99). Records for all cases (now M age= 24.2 yr., SD = 1.4) were reviewed forward 10 years and youth were classified into groups: Sexual Homicidal (1%, n = 7), Delinquent Rapists Later Adult Rapists (11%, n = 73), Delinquent Rapists (21%, n = 144), Delinquent Molesters Later Adult Molesters (10%, n = 69), Delinquent Molesters (23 %, n = 153), Nonviolent Delinquent Later Nonviolent Adult Criminals (7 %, n = 45), and Nonviolent Delinquents (27 %, n = 178). Comparison of Sexual Homicidal cases (n=7) with their matched Controls (n=7) yielded one predictor, poorer executive AUC=.89, 95%CI=.71-93). When Sexual Homicidal cases were matched with Nonviolent Delinquents, predictors were low social maturity and prior court contacts (AUC=.81, 95%CI=.64-.93).

• 出版日期2009-2
• 单位西北大学