A novel risk score for hepatocellular carcinoma in Asian cirrhotic patients: a multicentre prospective cohort study

作者：Liang Kung Hao; Ahn Sang Hoon; Lee Hye Wong; Huang Ya Hui; Chien Rong Nan; Hu Tsung Hui; Lin Kwang Huei; Yeh Christopher Sung Huan; Hsu Chao Wei; Lin Chih Lang; Pan Tai Long; Ke Po Yuan; Chang Ming Ling; Yeh Chau Ting^*

来源：Scientific Reports, 2018, 8(1): 8608.

DOI：10.1038/s41598-018-26992-3

Liver cirrhotic patients suffer from a seemingly unpredictable risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here, an HCC risk score R (0 <= R <= 1) was derived from commonly tested haematological and biochemica I parameters. In the score-derivation Taiwanese cohort (144 cirrhosis versus 48 HCC-remission patients), the score had an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.78, P < 0.001). When validated in a Korean cohort (78 cirrhosis versus 23 HCC-remission patients), the AUC was 0.68 (CI, 0.56-0.80, P = 0.009). In a multicentre prospective cohort (478 cirrhotic patients prospectively followed for HCC occurrence), the hazard ratio with respect to/? was 2.344 (CI = 1.183-4.646, P = 0.015). The cumulative incidences of HCC at two years after patient enrolment were9.6% and 1.7% for the high-risk (R >= 0.5) and low-risk (R < 0.5) groups, respectively (P < 0.001). At the end of the study, the incidences were 10.9% and 5.0%, respectively (P = 0.012). The majority of HCCs (23/26) in the high-risk group emerged within the first two years of follow-up. In conclusion, an HCC risk score was developed for cirrhotic patients that effectively predicted HCC in a prospective cohort study.

• 出版日期2018-6-5