A biannual recession-forecasting model

作者：Pelaez Rolando F^*

来源：Journal of Macroeconomics, 2015, 45: 384-393.

DOI：10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.07.002

• Business cycles
• Forecasting recessions
• Econometric models

The model predicts out-of-sample whether an NBER-defined peak or trough will occur within the next half-year. It yields a 100% proportion of correct recursive forecasts from 1970 to 2015. All the necessary data are readily available in un-revised form.