Asteroid close encounters characterization using differential algebra: the case of Apophis

作者：Armellin R; Di Lizia P^*; Bernelli Zazzera F; Berz M

来源：Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy, 2010, 107(4): 451-470.

DOI：10.1007/s10569-010-9283-5

• Uncertainties propagation
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Apophis close encounter
• Differential algebra

A method for the nonlinear propagation of uncertainties in Celestial Mechanics based on differential algebra is presented. The arbitrary order Taylor expansion of the flow of ordinary differential equations with respect to the initial condition delivered by differential algebra is exploited to implement an accurate and computationally efficient Monte Carlo algorithm, in which thousands of pointwise integrations are substituted by polynomial evaluations. The algorithm is applied to study the close encounter of asteroid Apophis with our planet in 2029. To this aim, we first compute the high order Taylor expansion of Apophis' close encounter distance from the Earth by means of map inversion and composition; then we run the proposed Monte Carlo algorithm to perform the statistical analysis.

• 出版日期2010-8