Agent-based simulation of policy induced diffusion of smart meters

作者：Rixen Martin^*; Weigand Juergen

来源：Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014, 85: 153-167.

DOI：10.1016/j.techfore.2013.08.011

• Induced diffusion
• Innovation adoption
• Agent-based modeling
• Smart Metering
• Competitive dynamics

How can policy makers influence the path of innovation diffusion effectively and efficiently? We tackle this question in an agent-based model that integrates demand and supply for Smart Meters. Consumers adopt due to awareness and attainment of price thresholds. Suppliers act strategically upon Cournot competition. We add different policies to the simulation and analyze effects on speed and level of Smart Meter adoption. The tested interventions are: Market liberalization, information policies, and monetary grants. From our results we conclude that "One size does not fit all". The best-suited intervention depends on the regulator's objective. Information policies speed-up adoption, but are ineffective in monopolies and if the timing is late. Monetary grants boost speed and level, but policy costs as well. Market structure is critical: Interventions in closed markets primarily favor the monopolist, while intensifying competition raises effectiveness and efficiency. Regulators may combine policies to gain synergies and utilize strategic decision making of suppliers.

• 出版日期2014-6