摘要

Since the uncertainty involved in demand forecast is increasingly amplified with the forecast lead-time, high-tech companies often suffer the risks of oversupply and shortage of capacity that will affect the profitability and growth. High-tech industries including semiconductor and TFT-LCD industries are capital-intensive, in which the capacity plan and corresponding capital investment decisions are critical due to demand fluctuation. Once the capacity is planned, the company may suffer the risks of either low capital-effectiveness due to low capacity utilization and capacity oversupply, or poor customer satisfaction caused by the capacity shortage. Most of the existing studies focused on solving the long-term capacity shortage issue through optimizing the capacity investment plan, or medium-term capacity plan to allocate demands among the wafer fabrication facilities (fabs) to balance the loading and product mix. Focusing on a real setting, this study proposed a systematic decision method to analyze short-term solutions of cross-company capacity backup between the companies in the semiconductor industry ecosystem. In particular, a game theory and decision tree analysis model was developed to support this decision. A case study was conducted with real data of semiconductor manufacturing companies in Taiwan for validation. The results have demonstrated practical viability of this approach. The approach suggested has been implemented in this company.