A prediction of the exergy loss of the world's mineral reserves in the 21st century

作者：Valero Al; Valero A^*

来源：Energy, 2011, 36(4): 1848-1854.

DOI：10.1016/j.energy.2010.02.041

• Exergy
• Exergy cost
• Fuels
• Minerals
• Depletion
• Energy scenarios
• 21st Century

This paper makes an assessment of the exergy loss of the main minerals produced in the world throughout the 21st century, namely coal, oil, natural gas, iron, aluminium and copper. The reason for using the exergy analysis as an assessment tool is because it takes into account the main physical features that make a natural resource valuable: concentration, composition and quantity. Furthermore, using the same unit of measurement (energy) means all minerals considered can be compared and added. The future depletion degree of mineral reserves has been predicted with the help of five different scenarios. The first scenario assumes that production of all commodities will follow the well-known Hubbert's bell-shaped curve. The other four models are based on the (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) for fossil fuel consumption and the Hubbert peak model for non-fuel minerals. The results of this study indicate that there might not be enough available resources to satisfy the predicted future mineral demand.

• 出版日期2011-4