A Computerized Feature Selection Method Using Genetic Algorithms to Forecast Freeway Accident Duration Times

作者：Lee Ying; Wei Chien Hung

来源：Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 2010, 25(2): 132-148.

DOI：10.1111/j.1467-8667.2009.00626.x

This study presents a feature selection method that uses genetic algorithms to create two artificial neural network-based models that provide a sequential forecast of accident duration from the time of accident notification to the accident site clearance. These two models can provide the estimated duration time by plugging in relevant traffic data as soon as an accident is notified. To select data feature, the genetic algorithm is designed to decrease the number of model inputs while preserving the relevant traffic characteristics. Using the proposed feature selection method, the mean absolute percentage error for forecasting accident duration at each time point is mostly under 29%, which indicates that these models have a reasonable forecasting ability. Thanks to this model, travelers and traffic management units can better understand the impact of accidents. This study shows that the proposed models are feasible in the Intelligent Transportation Systems context.

• 出版日期2010-2