科研之友
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摘要
This paper addresses two fundamental issues that arise broadly in human response to natural hazards: the effect on overall costs of the high variability (power laws) in event size statistics and complexities associated with combining disparate sources of information in decision-making. To address these issues in a series of concrete scenarios, we analyse data for California wildfires. We also develop a modelling framework that projects costs based on the combination of a dynamic fire spread model, an economic cost model and population data. Our study uses model-generated fire catalogues to estimate the effect of suppression strategies on fire size, and our cost function incorporates both suppression costs and loss of assets. Together, these yield statistical estimates of the average economic impact of fire response policies. Tradeoffs between resource costs and assets at risk determine the optimal response for an individual fire. We also compare the costs of different policies for division of limited resources between multiple fires using scenarios motivated by the 2003 and 2007 California wildfire seasons.
- 出版日期2012
