A time delay model for the diffusion of a new technology

作者：Fanelli Viviana^*; Maddalena Lucia

来源：Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications , 2012, 13(2): 643-649.

DOI：10.1016/j.nonrwa.2011.08.001

• Delay differential equation
• Innovation diffusion
• Asymptotic behavior

In this paper, we propose a mathematical model with time delay to describe the process of diffusion of a new technology. This model is suitable for modeling diffusion processes of all those technologies that require great initial investments and public subsidies, such as technologies used for producing renewable energy. We consider external factors, such as the government policy and the production costs, that influence the decision of adoption of the new technology. We also consider the internal influence from adopters. The adoption process is described by a delay differential equation. The time delay represents the evaluation stage at which the potential consumers decide whether to adopt the new technology or not. A qualitative analysis is carried out in order to assess the stability of the equilibrium for certain parameters and to find the final level of adopters.

• 出版日期2012-4