Adults' perceived prevalence of enteric fever predicts laboratory-validated incidence of typhoid fever in children

作者：Chen, Xinguang^*; Stanton, Bonita; Pach, Al; Nyamete, Andrew; Ochiai, R Leon; Kaljee, Linda; Dong, Baiqing; Sur, Dipika; Bhattacharya, S K; Santoso, Siti Sapardiyah; Agtini, Magdarina; Memon, Zahid; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Do, Canh Gia; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Clemens, John

来源：Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition, 2007, 25(4): 469-478.

• developing countries
• incidence
• perceptions
• prediction model
• prevalence
• Salmonella
• typhoid fever
• China
• India
• Viet Nam
• Indonesia
• Pakistan

This study was undertaken to develop a model to predict the incidence of typhoid in children based on adults' perception of prevalence of enteric fever in the wider community. Typhoid cases among children, aged 5-15 years, from epidemic regions in five Asian countries were confirmed with a positive Salmonella Typhi culture of the blood sample. Estimates of the prevalence of enteric fever were obtained from random samples of adults in the same study sites. Regression models were used for establishing the prediction equation. The percentages of enteric fever reported by adults and cases of typhoid incidence per 100,000, detected through blood culture were 4.7 and 24.18 for Viet Nam, 3.8 and 29.20 for China, 26.3 and 180.33 for Indonesia, 66.0 and 454.15 for India, and 52.7 and 407.18 for Pakistan respectively. An established prediction equation was: incidence of typhoid (1/100,000= -2.6946 + 7.2296 x reported prevalence of enteric fever (%) (F=31.7, p < 0.01; R-2=0.992). Using adults' perception of prevalence of disease as the basis for estimating its incidence in children provides a cost-effective behavioural epidemiologic method to facilitate prevention and control of the disease.

• 出版日期2007-12
• 单位广西壮族自治区疾病预防控制中心