科研之友
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摘要
As the main energy status of coal in China will not change for a long period of time, many regions throughout the country may face persistent atmospheric coal-related polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) pollution. In this study, four provinces, Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, in Southwest China were chosen as the target areas due to the inadequate research concern for their relatively serious PAHs pollution. Based on the interrelationships among coal-related PAHs emission, energy consumption and economic development, a comprehensive assessment model was developed by using system dynamics (SD) method and applied to analyze the dynamic variations of coal-related PAHs emission for the four provinces under three designed scenarios. The results showed that, under maintaining scenario, the relative growth rates of coal-related PAHs emission for the four provinces were in the order of Guangxi (44.54%)>Guizhou (29.44%)>Yunnan (26.37%)>Sichuan (-2.19%). After the adjustment of industry structure and energy consumption structure, the relative growth rates for Sichuan and Yunnan under planning scenario were reduced 27.17% and 20.88%, respectively, compared with those under maintaining scenario, resulting in the maximum emission reduction effects among the four provinces. The relative growth rates for Guizhou and Guangxi under planning scenario were merely reduced 7.32% and 5.52%, respectively, so these two provinces still maintained a relatively fast increasing trend. To achieve the effective emission reduction of coal-related PAHs, the targeted regulation policies should be implemented for the four provinces. The control policies for both industrial and household sources should be considered for Yunnan. The emission from the industrial sources should be reduced in Sichuan. The control policies for industrial and household sources should be adopted for Guangxi and Guizhou, respectively, based on further optimization and upgradation of the industry and energy structure for these two provinces. In conclusion, the SD method is capable of comprehensively analyzing the dynamic variations of unconventional atmospheric pollutants, thus providing policy references for local governments to scientifically regulate the development relationships among regional economy, energy structure and environmental quality.
- 出版日期2018
- 单位华南理工大学
