A new timed influence net model with stochastic delay

作者：Zhu Yan Guang^*; Zhu Yi Fan; Lei Yong Lin; Cao Xing Ping

来源：Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 2012, 32(8): 1814-1825.

• Belief propagation algorithm
• Causal relationships
• Stochastic belief sequence
• Stochastic delay
• Timed influence nets

Timed influence net (TIN) is a powerful formalism to model uncertain causal relationship, and has been widely used in effectiveness evaluation of military operation alternatives. Stochastic timed influence net (STIN) is proposed to enhance TIN formalism by relaxing the constant delay assumption. Two key parameters, stochastic delay and stochastic belief sequence, are introduced in STIN to evaluate the effectiveness of alternatives under uncertain delays in the generation and propagation of operational effect. The mathematical description of and belief propagation algorithm in STIN is discussed in detail. This paper presents an example to illustrate the modeling process of STIN and the effectiveness of the belief propagation algorithm.

• 出版日期2012