Regime switching dynamics in credit default swaps: Evidence from smooth transition autoregressive model

作者：Huang Alex YiHou^*; Hu Wen Cheng

来源：Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications , 2012, 391(4): 1497-1508.

DOI：10.1016/j.physa.2011.08.008

• Credit default swap
• Detrended cross-correlations analysis
• Smooth transition autoregressive model
• Financial crisis

This paper investigates the dynamics of credit default swap (CDS) spread. We first find auto-correlations and cross-correlations of the CDS series and the CDS average by employing detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA). We then employ smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to characterize the regime switching behavior of 28 US corporate CDS series from January 2007 through October 2009. In each case, we find clear evidence for transitions between low-price and high-price regimes. The threshold estimations of the STAR model effectively differentiate the price regimes, where the first transition consistently coincides with the explosion of the crisis in late 2008.

• 出版日期2012-2-15