ANALYSIS OF UNCERTAINTIES IN REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS OVER THE CZECH REPUBLIC

作者：Holtanova Eva^*; Kalvova Jaroslava; Miksovsky Jiri; Pisoft Petr; Motl Martin

来源：Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica, 2010, 54(3): 513-528.

DOI：10.1007/s11200-010-0030-x

• global climate model
• emission scenario
• climate change projection
• reliability averaging method
• analysis of variance
• project PRUDENCE
• natural variability

In this study we present results of uncertainty analysis in eight regional climate model (RCM) outputs over the area of the Czech Republic. The RCM simulations come from the EU 5th Framework program project PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects). Using the analysis of variance we have found that the main source of uncertainty in projected changes of mean seasonal air temperature is the driving global climate model. In case of precipitation changes, the RCM is the largest source of uncertainty in all seasons except for the spring. With the second method, the Reliability Averaging method, we have focused on the uncertainty coining from the RCM itself The results of both methods showed that the relative contribution of the regional climate model to the uncertainty of simulated mean seasonal air temperature and precipitation changes is largest in summer and smallest in winter.

• 出版日期2010