A simple model for the estimation of wine characteristics in SW Germany

作者：Neumann Paul A^*; Matzarakis Andreas

来源：Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2014, 116(1-2): 259-271.

DOI：10.1007/s00704-013-0946-5

In the Federal State of Baden-Wuerttemberg in southwest of Germany, viticulture has a paramount importance in its agricultural sector. A simple model was developed for the purpose of estimating the annual wine characteristics with meteorological data as predictive terms. The estimations were based on 40 years of meteorological data of 11 weather stations and statistical data of annual must density and titratable acidity. A 30-year timespan was used to develop an estimation method and a 10-year timespan was used for validation. Three indices were combined by using a stepwise multiple linear regression: the Heliothermal Index, the climatic water balance, and the sunshine duration. In order to improve the model, the indices were modified by varying the time periods used to calculate the respective index. The model was able to estimate the must density with a bias below 1 Oechsle degree (A degrees Oe) absolute value, which equals 0.21 A degrees Bx, a mean average error (MAE) below 4A degrees A Oe/0.82 A degrees Bx and a root mean square error (RMSE) below 5A degrees A Oe /1.03 A degrees Bx. The titratable acidity could be estimated with a bias below 0.1 g/L absolute value, a MAE below 0.7 g/L and a RMSE below 0.9 g/L.

• 出版日期2014-4