Approaches to rare events in stochastic dynamics of ships

作者：Belenky Vadim^*; Weems Kenneth M; Bossler Christopher C; Dipper Martin J; Campbell Bradley L; Spyrou Kostas J

来源：Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 2012, 28: 30-38.

DOI：10.1016/j.probengmech.2011.08.020

• Rare events
• Monte Carlo method
• Stability of ship in waves

The paper reviews problems and solutions related to extreme ship motions in random waves. In its general form, the dynamical system is described by integro-differential equations. The bandwidth of excitation is medium; stiffness is extremely nonlinear and random. In standard ship design, the main tools for the engineering evaluation are model experiments and numerical simulations using potential flow hydrodynamics with empirical models for non-potential flow forces. However, a direct Monte Carlo approach is impractical because of the high cost of running these tools and the rarity of extreme motion events. To obtain a practical solution, the principle of separation can be used to effectively consider the nonlinear phenomena resulting in an extreme response and the conditions that lead to the occurrence of such phenomena. This paper discusses fundamental aspects of three methods that use the principle of separation: the peaks-over-threshold/envelope peaks-over-threshold method, the split-time method, and the critical wave group method.

• 出版日期2012-4