An analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in counties located along road and railway corridors in the State of Maranhao, Brazil

作者：Goncalves Neto Vicente Silva; Duailibe Barros Filho Allan Kardec; dos Santos Alcione Miranda; Carreira de Sa Prazeres Margarida Paula; Rolim Bezerril Ana Celia; de Lima Fonseca Alexandre Vitor; Macario Rebelo Jose Manuel

来源：Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical, 2013, 46(3): 322-328.

DOI：10.1590/0037-8682-0056-2012

• American cutaneous leishmaniasis
• Bayesian model
• Spatio temporal distribution
• Relative risk

Introduction: The incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is increasing in Latin America, especially in Brazil, where 256,587 cases were confirmed in the last decade. Methods: This study used a Bayesian model to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of ACL cases between 2000 and 2009 in 61 counties of State of Maranhao located along the three main road and railway corridors. Results: During the study period, 13,818 cases of ACL were recorded. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of ACL in the ten study years. The recorded incidence rate ranged from 7.36 to 241.45 per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risk increased in 77% of the counties, decreased in 18% and was maintained in only five counties. Conclusions: Although there was a decreased incidence of the disease, ACL was present in all of the examined municipalities, thus maintaining the risk of contracting this illness.

• 出版日期2013-6