A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments

作者：Winkler Julie A^*; Thorn**ury Suzanne; Artavia Marco; Chmielewski Frank M; Kirschke Dieter; Lee Sangjun; Liszewska Malgorzata; Loveridge Scott; Tan Pang Ning; Zhong Sharon; Andresen Jeffrey A; Black J Roy; Kurlus Robert; Nizalov Denys; Olynk Nicole; Ustrnul Zbigniew; Zavalloni Costanza; Bisanz Jeanne M; Bujdoso Geza; Fusina Lesley; Henniges Yvonne; Hilsendegen Peter; Lar Katarzyna; Malarzewski Lukasz; Moeller Thordis; Murmylo Roman; Niedzwiedz Tadeusz

来源：Climatic Change, 2010, 103(3-4): 445-470.

DOI：10.1007/s10584-009-9781-1

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices An important component of the framework is the assessment of the "metauncertainty" arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems

• 出版日期2010-12