Development scale analysis method of regional distributed integrated energy supply system and its application

作者：Wu, Yusheng; Sen, Ouyang; Luo, Hong Xuan; Xie, Qiuxia

来源：Energy Education Science and Technology Part A: Energy Science and Research , 2014, 32(5): 3565-3578.

• Application analysis
• Correlation analysis
• Correlational analysis
• Development potential
• Energy supplies
• Energy supply system
• Market forecasting
• Scenario analysis

In China, regional distributed integrated energy supply system (DESS) is under developing nowadays, and its development has the features of nonlinear, multi-factors and less historical data. According to these features, this paper uses three kinds of methods to set up the forecasting model of DESS respectively, including scenario analysis, factor correlation analysis and market forecasting model. Scenario analysis sets three kinds of scenarios: high, medium and low, and analyzes the development potential of DESS in each scenario. Factor correlation analysis makes the correlational analyses of factors those have great influence on DESS, in order to grasp the development scale. Market forecasting model considers different influence factors and measures the development potential of distributed energy supply from the market’s perspective. The organic bond of these three kinds of methods, each of them has its focus, can obtain the reasonable analysis and prediction method of regional distributed integrated energy supply development scale. Through the application analysis in five southern provinces of China, this paper provides an effective way in practice.

• 出版日期2014-11-1
• 单位华南理工大学