Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species%26apos; responses to climate change

作者：Mair Louise^*; Hill Jane K; Fox Richard; Botham Marc; Brereton Tom; Thomas Chris D

来源：Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(2): 127-131.

DOI：10.1038/NCLIMATE2086

There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species%26apos; geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming(1,2). Here we show that the relative importance of species%26apos; abundance trends and habitat availability for British butterfly species vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the subset of species with stable abundances from the mid-1990s to 2009, when abundance trends were generally declining. This suggests that stable (or positive) abundance trends are a prerequisite for range expansion. Given that species%26apos; abundance trends vary over time(3) for non-climatic as well as climatic reasons, assessment of abundance trends will help improve predictions of species%26apos; responses to climate change, and help us to understand the likely success of different conservation strategies for facilitating their expansions.

• 出版日期2014-2