A stochastic economic viability analysis of residential wind power generation in Brazil

作者：Souza Rocha Luiz Celio; Aquila Giancarlo; Rotela Junior Paulo; de Paiva Anderson Paulo; Pamplona Edson de Oliveira; Balestrassi Pedro Paulo

来源：RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS, 2018, 90: 412-419.

DOI：10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.078

• Renewable energy sources
• Microgeneration energy
• Stochastic analysis
• Net present value
• Monte Carlo simulation

This study evaluates the stochastic economic viability of residential wind power generation in Brazil. Three scenarios representing different regions from Brazil were considered: high, low, and intermediate wind speed. For each scenario, 10,000 simulations were conducted using the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) 1 method to obtain possible Net Present Values (NPV) for a project. The sensitivity analysis revealed that wind speed and investment are essential for the viability of this type of project. For the evaluated scenarios, the results show that the investment in residential wind power generation has a low feasibility probability. The high, low, and intermediate wind speed scenarios produce feasibility results of 22.04%, 1.51%, and 15.06%, respectively. This result infers that it is essential to subsidize this technology and decrease the uncertainty of price fluctuations in order to leverage the residential wind power generation. The National Agency of Electrical Energy's (ANEEL) initiative to encourage installation of residential microgenerators is the first step to disseminate and consolidate clean energy generation technologies. Additional policies must be adopted in order to reduce the risk assumed by investors in residential wind power generation in Brazil.

• 出版日期2018-7