A Study on the Occurrence of High Order Failure Scenarios in Bulk Power Transmission Systems

作者：Zapata Carlos J^*; Kirschen Daniel S; Rios Mario A

来源：International Review of Electrical Engineering, 2011, 6(1): 332-339.

• Monte Carlo Simulation
• Power System Reliability
• Stochastic Point Processes

The n-1 reliability criterion has been applied extensively for power systems because the loss of two or more components over a short period due to independent failures has traditionally been considered not credible. However, the post-mortem analysis of some blackouts has shown that these kinds of events do occur; hence, the question about what contingency level is relevant for bulk power transmission systems arises. In order to reply this question, a method for studying the occurrence of high order failure scenarios (HOFS) is presented in this paper; it is based on stochastic point process (SPP) modeling and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). In contrast to traditional methods, it can include aging, currently a matter of great concern in the power industry, and does not require the elaboration of a list of system operating states, a cumbersome task even for small systems. Results obtained using the IEEE Reliability Test System show that independently of system size or the presence of aging HOFS of order 2 and 3 are the most relevant because they have higher probability of occurrence and lesser time span than others. It is then recommended to consider HOFS of these orders for the study of bulk power transmission systems.

• 出版日期2011-2