Estimation of air traffic longitudinal conflict probability based on the reaction time of controllers

作者：Yang Shang wen^*; Hu Ming hua

来源：Safety Science, 2010, 48(7): 926-930.

DOI：10.1016/j.ssci.2010.03.016

• Air traffic control
• Conflict probability
• Controller reaction time
• Lognormal distribution

To estimate air traffic longitudinal conflict probability influenced by human factors, an analytic model considering the reaction time of controllers is proposed. In the model, the decelerating process of two close flights is described, and the reaction time of controllers is considered a stochastic variable. Then one hundred data of the controller reaction time are collected and analysed. Maximum likelihood estimate is used for parameter estimation. The Anderson-Darling Goodness of Fit test is used for significance test. The results show that the reaction time of controllers fits lognormal distribution at levels of significance 0.05, 0.025, 0.01 and 0.005 respectively. Case study is then performed to certify the rationality of the model, and the impact of the controller reaction time on air traffic longitudinal conflict probability is shown.

• 出版日期2010-8
• 单位南京大学; 中国民航大学