NAO implicated as a predictor of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature multidecadal variability

作者：Li, Jianping^*; Sun, Cheng; Jin, Fei-Fei

来源：Geophysical Research Letters, 2013, 40(20): 5497-5502.

DOI：10.1002/2013GL057877

• ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
• THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION
• SURFACE-TEMPERATURE
• CLIMATE
• RAINFALL
• MODELS
• TRENDS

The twentieth century Northern Hemisphere mean surface temperature (NHT) is characterized by a multidecadal warming-cooling-warming pattern followed by a flat trend since about 2000 (recent warming hiatus). Here we demonstrate that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is implicated as a useful predictor of NHT multidecadal variability. Observational analysis shows that the NAO leads both the detrended NHT and oceanic Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) by 15-20 years. Theoretical analysis illuminates that the NAO precedes NHT multidecadal variability through its delayed effect on the AMO due to the large thermal inertia associated with slow oceanic processes. An NAO-based linear model is therefore established to predict the NHT, which gives an excellent hindcast for NHT in 1971-2011 with the recent flat trend well predicted. NHT in 2012-2027 is predicted to fall slightly over the next decades, due to the recent NAO decadal weakening that temporarily offsets the anthropogenically induced warming.

• 出版日期2013-10-28
• 单位中国科学院大气物理研究所