Not a Sure Thing: Fitness, Probability, and Causation

作者：Walsh Denis M^*

来源：Philosophy of Science, 2010, 77(2): 147-171.

In evolutionary biology changes in population structure are explained by citing trait fitness distribution. I distinguish three interpretations of fitness explanations-the Two-Factor Model, the Single-Factor Model, and the Statistical Interpretation-and argue for the last of these. These interpretations differ in their degrees of causal commitment. The first two hold that trait fitness distribution causes population change. Trait fitness explanations, according to these interpretations, are causal explanations. The last maintains that trait fitness distribution correlates with population change but does not cause it. My defense of the Statistical Interpretation relies on a distinctive feature of causation. Causes conform to the Sure Thing Principle. Trait fitness distributions, I argue, do not.

• 出版日期2010-4