A New Method to Predict the Popularity of the Microblog

作者:Bao, Ze-Min; Liu, Yun*; Xiong, Fei; Liu, Qing
来源:Journal of Internet Technology, 2016, 17(7): 1405-1412.
DOI:10.6138/JIT.2016.17.7.20160415b

摘要

This paper proposes a new approach to predict the popularity of content in the Chinese microblogging website Sina Weibo. There are four operations in Sina Weibo, including post, repost-only, repost-and-comment, and comment-only. We model these operations as a bipartite graph, which takes the temporal factor into account by assigning edge weight as an exponential decay function. We then propose a regularization framework on this model to predict the original post's future popularity. Experimental results show that our method outperforms other methods in predicting the post's future popularity, especially for short-term prediction.

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