Assessing the Role of Voluntary Self-Isolation in the Control of Pandemic Influenza Using a Household Epidemic Model

作者：Zhang, Qingxia; Wang, Dingcheng^*

来源：International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2015, 12(8): 9750-9767.

DOI：10.3390/ijerph120809750

• mathematical modeling
• pandemic influenza
• voluntary self-isolation
• antiviral prophylaxis
• household reproduction number

In the absence of effective vaccines, antiviral drugs and personal protective measures, such as voluntary self-isolation, have been a part of preparedness plans for the next influenza pandemic. We used a household model to assess the effect of voluntary self-isolation on outbreak control when antiviral drugs are not provided sufficiently early. We found that the early initiation of voluntary self-isolation can overcome the negative effects caused by a delay in antiviral drug distribution when enough symptomatic individuals comply with home confinement at symptom onset. For example, for the baseline household reproduction number
R
H 0
= 2 . 5
, if delays of one or two days occur between clinical symptom development and the start of antiviral prophylaxis, then compliance rates of
q
0 . 41
and
q
0 . 6
, respectively, are required to achieve the same level of effectiveness as starting antiviral prophylaxis at symptom onset. When the time to beginning voluntary self-isolation after symptom onset increases from zero to two days, this strategy has a limited effect on reducing the transmission of influenza; therefore, this strategy should be implemented as soon as possible. In addition, the effect of voluntary self-isolation decreases substantially with the proportion of asymptomatic infections increasing.

• 出版日期2015-8
• 单位电子科技大学; 西南石油大学