科研之友
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摘要
Methods for analyzing the completeness of earthquake historical catalogs are applied to estimate which part of a historical catalog likely includes all earthquakes of a certain magnitude class after a certain time in a given area. Current methods of catalog completeness estimation are not sufficient in case of long-term nonstationary seismicity data. Such methods typically require model presumptions, whereas the method described in this study does not. We develop a statistical approach based on a deviation criterion, which is applicable to stationary, nonstationary, and even multimodal nonstationary seismicity rates. The significance of the method is tested using synthetic catalogs extracted from stationary (exponential based on a Poisson process) and nonstationary (mixed bimodal Weibull-Weibull, gamma, and log-normal) distributions. The method is applied to different parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region based on long-term seismicity data.
- 出版日期2012-12
