Model for end-stage liver disease versus the Child-Pugh score in predicting the post-transplant 3-month and 1-year mortality in a cohort of Chinese recipients

作者：Guo, Zhiyong; He, Xiaoshun^*; Wu, Linwei; Ju, Weiqiang; Hu, Anbin; Tai, Qiang; Wang, Dongping; Ma, Yi; Wang, Guodong; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Huang, Jiefu

来源：Surgery Today, 2010, 40(1): 38-45.

DOI：10.1007/s00595-009-4114-6

• Model for end-stage liver disease
• Child-Pugh score
• Liver transplantation
• Mortality

This study evaluated the performance of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) in predicting post-transplant survival in a cohort of Chinese patients, and compared its predictive ability with that of the Child-Pugh score. @@@ The study enrolled 117 adult Chinese patients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases from January 1998 to January 2007 to evaluate the baseline characteristics and outcomes. @@@ In a median follow-up duration of 90 weeks (range 0.2-373 weeks), 30 patients died. The 3-month and 1-year mortality rates of recipients in group 1 (MELD score < 28) were 1.1% and 5.6%, in group 2 (MELD score 28-38) 18.8% and 50.0%, and in group 3 (MELD score > 38) 91.7% and 91.7%, respectively. A statistical difference was observed in the mortality rates between the three groups (P < 0.001). At 3 months, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MELD (0.950) was significantly higher than that of the Child-Pugh score (0.810; P < 0.05). @@@ Both the MELD and Child-Pugh score are valid models to predict the short-term or mediumterm outcome of Chinese recipients undergoing liver transplantation for benign end-stage liver diseases. The MELD is superior to the Child-Pugh score in predicting the 3-month mortality post-transplantation.

• 出版日期2010-1
• 单位中山大学