Uncertainty in numerical models of borehole heat exchangers

作者：Ruehaak Wolfram; Steiner Sarah; Welsch Bastian; Sass Ingo

来源：Grundwasser, 2015, 20(4): 243-251.

DOI：10.1007/s00767-015-0305-9

• Numerical modeling
• Heat transport
• Borehole heat exchanger
• Uncertainty
• Ensemble modeling

Large installations of borehole heat exchangers (BHEs) typically require numerical modeling. A reasonable system dimensioning (number and depth of BHEs) has to be found and regulatory requirements (minimizing environmental impact and avoiding competitive usage) have to be met. In the latter case, highly realistic models are typically demanded. Such realistic models are technically possible, but very laborious. One important issue, which is often neglected, is the quantification of parameter uncertainties due to heterogeneity of the geological subsurface.
Instead of a single forecast model, the additional computation of so-called ensemble models, i.e. a larger number of more simplified models, should be considered. By varying the relevant characteristics of the subsurface within the range of uncertainty, the quality of the forecast can be estimated, and the system designer can obtain valuable additional information.

• 出版日期2015-12