ERM crisis in retrospect: What if a European central bank had been in existence before 1992?

作者：Yeh Kuo chun^*; Ho Tai kuang

来源：Economic Modelling, 2011, 28(4): 1526-1535.

DOI：10.1016/j.econmod.2011.02.010

• Counterfactual analysis
• European Monetary System
• Currency crisis

This paper explores whether policy coordination or a single monetary policy implemented earlier would have kept the U.K. in the process of European monetary integration. On the basis of the pre-ERM crisis empirics by Douven and Plasmans (1996), a counterfactual game simulation approach is used, and five scenarios are established for comparison with the actual historical records. The final answer is negative.

• 出版日期2011-7
• 单位清华大学