科研之友
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摘要
The theme discussed in the present study is that of spring dust storm easonal forecasts in Northern China A comprehensive investigation of observations collected from 65 stations in Northern China which studied strong winds for 35 years (1971-2005) and dust storms for 48 years (1961-2008) concluded that strong winds which are recognized as a crucially dynamic factor have unsurprisingly proven to be strongly related to dust storm activity Therefore determining effective predictors for strong winds should be helpful in spring dust storm forecasts By employing this idea comprehensive correlation analyses among the strong winds dust storms and other influential elements from the oceans and the atmospheric circulations can be seen From the spatial correlation fields between prior sea surface temperatures and the trong winds four regions with higher oceanic coefficiencies are confirmed The method of EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) decomposition is adopted to extract forecast signals from prior precipitation in Northern China and sea surface temperatures of those regions The multivariable step regression model is employed to select efficient predictors and the multivariable regression model is used to create forecast equations With the cross validation approach six series of 48 year hindc ists with six different predictor sets are conducted Furthermore the three classification forecast method is used to judge successful or failed dust storm forecasts Together forecast skills of probability of d tection and skill score suggest that series forec
- 出版日期2010-12
- 单位内蒙古自治区气象科学研究所
