Analysis of gray-Markov forecasting for traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region

作者：Zhan Wei; Lü Qing; Shang Yue Quan

来源：Journal of Jilin University (Engineering and Technology Edition), 2014, 44(1): 62-67.

DOI：10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb201401011

• Accident forecast
• Forecasting accuracy
• Forecasting methods
• Grey forecasting model
• Grey Model
• Highway tunnel groups
• Residual error models
• Transportation safety engineerings

Based on the original data of traffic accidents in a typical highway tunnel group region, a grey forecasting model, which is modified by residual error model, is proposed to analyze the development trend of traffic accidents in highway tunnel group region. The forecasting accuracy is improved by introducing Markov optimization. Compared with commonly used forecasting method, the proposed method in this paper has a better forecasting accuracy and practicality in a period. It can be used for the forecasting analysis of traffic accidents and for security early warning in highway tunnel group region.

• 出版日期2014
• 单位浙江大学